“Drops in foreign-student enrollment are nothing new: between 2003 and 2005 the numbers fell by a little more than 8 percent, but they began to rebound a few years later,” writes Alex Usher of Higher Education Strategy Associates in a new article for Education Next. “If there is greater concern…now than 15 years ago,…it is probably because international-student revenues make up a much larger proportion of most institutions’ budgets now.”

Amid a 6.6 percent drop in new international-student enrollments last year, college officials and major media outlets alike have pointed to President Trump’s rhetoric and visa policies as undercutting demand for U.S. higher education among foreign students. The cause of dwindling enrollment, however, is rooted in both global and domestic trends, reports Usher:

• Waning international enrollment is concentrated among fee-paying foreign students. Foreign-student applications have fallen about 7 percent over the past two years, concentrated mostly at the master’s degree level. By contrast, applications to doctoral programs ticked upward over the same two years. Furthermore, despite a drop in applications, first-time enrollments decreased by only 2 percent, with the effects concentrated among masters-level programs at less selective institutions.
• Youth cohort sizes in China are plummeting. Global enrollment growth is slowing, driven largely by China’s falling youth cohort sizes. Along with India, China currently contributes 50 percent of total foreign students in the U.S and is among only four countries responsible for 97 percent of all international-enrollment growth since 2006 (with India, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam).
• Flattening growth rate in the U.S. is not unique among English-speaking countries. International student enrollment increased between 2013 and 2018 across five English-speaking countries—Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.—but the rate of growth has varied. Leveling growth in the U.S. after 2016 is consistent with similar growth trends that occurred in the United Kingdom and New Zealand when their governments took deliberate steps to reduce the influx of foreign students.
• U.S. private universities are the most expensive option for international students. While public institutions in the U.S. are priced similarly to those in other countries, tuition at U.S. private institutions is significantly higher than elsewhere. High-prestige private institutions can continue to generate applications even at steep prices, but less research-intensive, four-year private schools may struggle to justify prices in the eyes of international students.

For more details read “Has President Trump Scared Away All the Foreign Students? The facts behind fears of a higher-education revenue recession.” To speak with the author, please contact Jackie Kerstetter at jackie.kerstetter@educationnext.org.